Latest official estimate · 2025
Australia rare earths
Australia mines 7.4% of rare earths. Separation comes next.
Australia is already the third-largest miner. The next contest is whether Eneabba and Nolans can make individual rare-earth chemicals at home.
Updated 30 August 2026 | 19 minute read | Project data cutoff 28 August 2026 | Price reference 28 August 2026
On this pageTakeaway
Australia mined about 29,000 tonnes in 2025, or 7.4% of world output. Mt Weld remains its only large producer. 1 The bigger change could come from factories. Eneabba is being built to make individual rare-earth chemicals inside Australia. Its published case includes 3,300 tonnes a year of combined neodymium and praseodymium, with testing targeted for 2027 and contracted deliveries for 2028. 9 10
Nolans joins a new mine to an Australian chemical plant. It is funded, with a planned maximum of 4,440 tonnes a year of neodymium and praseodymium and first product targeted around mid-2029. Arafura describes that annual rate as about 4% of forecast global demand. 14 12 13 We do not publish a 2030 national mine-tonnage forecast because Nolans reports finished chemical capacity, not a comparable contained-ore figure. Our central estimate is 5,520 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium chemicals made in Australia in 2030. It is an EarthRarest estimate, not company guidance.
The country in four dates
The mine is proven. Domestic separation is the new race.
Reported output, current events, company targets and our forecasts are kept in separate boxes. NdPr means neodymium and praseodymium reported together. Dy/Tb means dysprosium and terbium reported together.
What changed in 2026
A second raw-material source started and a new refinery was funded.
Next operating milestone · 2027
Eneabba should be the first large Australian separator.
2030 view
Australia can finish more of what it mines.
Strategic metals already in the picture
Rare earths are not the whole story.
Data and sources1,300 tonnes · 1.2%Antimony mine estimate, 2025
100 tonnes a year plannedWagerup capacity; construction began in 2026
30 tonnes a year project caseDubbo design; not funded or producing
Open and planned projects
Two operations, two funded builds and six projects still waiting
The amount column says whether a figure is actual output, plant capacity or a study estimate. Different product stages cannot be added together.
| Project | Status | Product and yearly amount | Earliest supply | Where it goes next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 + 2Mt Weld and KalgoorlieWestern Australia | Producing now | Mined in Australia: 29,000 tonnes in 2025Lynas products later made in Malaysia: 13,089 tonnes in the 2026 financial year | NowLarge-scale operating chain | Kalgoorlie makes mixed carbonate. Lynas's reported oxides ready to sell are separated and finished in Malaysia. Source |
| 10BalranaldNew South Wales | Producing now | Actual 2026 output not yet publishedEarlier full-rate estimate: about 4,000 tonnes a year of concentrate; not finished rare-earth chemicals | Mining began January 2026Rare-earth raw material follows the refinery schedule | Monazite-rich mineral sands are intended for Eneabba. Current project, estimate |
| 3Eneabba refineryWestern Australia | Under construction | Full-rate project case: 15,100 tonnes a yearIncludes 3,300 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium. The 23,000-tonne maximum needs enough suitable raw material; neither figure is 2027 output | Testing in 2027First contracted deliveries in 2028 | Turns stockpile and mined raw material into oxides in Australia. It is a processor, not extra mine supply. Case, schedule |
| 6NolansNorthern Territory | Funded; mobilisation under way | 4,440 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium chemicalsFull design output, plus about 570 tonnes of combined middle and heavy rare-earth products in the economics case | Major construction targeted from September 2026Mid-2029 first-product target | Mine, chemical treatment and oxide separation are planned on one Australian site. Decision, output |
| 4Browns RangeWestern Australia | Waiting for money or permits | 17,500 tonnes of partly processed oreStudy estimate containing about 4,350 tonnes of rare-earth material, rich in dysprosium and terbium | Late 2028 or early 2029 targetConditional on a build decision and finance | Planned raw material for Eneabba. Important for material mix, not just tonnes. Study, schedule |
| 5YangibanaWestern Australia | Waiting for money or permits | 31,570 tonnes of partly processed oreStudy estimate containing 8,524 tonnes of rare-earth material and 3,090 tonnes of neodymium and praseodymium | About two years after engineering and construction awardDecision and finance still required | Large study figure, but excluded from the central 2030 case until a build is funded. Source |
| 7DubboNew South Wales | Waiting for money or permits | 1,242 tonnes of individual rare-earth chemicalsEarlier study case. The current product route is being reviewed | No dependable dateDesign may change | Could make mixed or separated products. Earlier case, review |
| 8DonaldVictoria | Waiting for money or permits | 8,500 to 9,500 tonnes of partly processed oreCurrent company production target | 2028 company targetConditional on a final build decision and debt finance | Concentrate is intended for separation in Utah, United States. Source |
| 9GoschenVictoria | Waiting for money or permits | 8,320 tonnes of partly processed oreAgreement average containing about 4,900 tonnes of rare-earth material | No dependable dateEnvironmental approval is in place; a final build decision and finance remain conditions | Intended raw material for Eneabba. Do not add its contained tonnes to Eneabba output. Source |
Read the tonnes in three stages Partly processed ore still contains several materials. Rare-earth content is the amount inside that ore. Individual chemicals are the later customer products.
Material by material
What Australia makes now, what projects may make by 2030, and what China controls
Each card begins with the finding. The source limits sit underneath it.
Strategic metals beyond rare earths
Australia's other strategic metals
Each card states the type of output and year. The bars compare this country with the market leader at the same step whenever the data allows it. A data gap is not zero.
2025 mine estimate; August 2026 project check
Australia is a small current antimony miner. Hillgrove could lift that figure.
Hillgrove entered staged start-up testing in July 2026 and forecasts about 4,900 tonnes a year at full operation. No saleable antimony output had been reported by the 28 August cut-off, so that full-rate figure is not counted as current supply.
Antimony: Flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, ammunition and infrared systems.
1,300 tonnes1.2%
Comparable current figure not published
Bismuth: data gap
2025 output check; August 2026 build status
Australia is not producing gallium yet. Wagerup is now being built.
The project reached a build decision in July 2026 and ground was broken on 24 August. Its 100-tonne-a-year rating is planned capacity, not current output. No start year is counted here.
Gallium: Power chips, radio-frequency chips, LEDs and high-efficiency solar cells.
No reported 2025 outputWagerup: 100 tonnes a year planned
No reliable percentage is published for this country and production step.
Comparable current figure not published
Germanium: data gap
Current output check; proposed project design
Australia has a hafnium project design, not verified production.
Australian Strategic Materials lists 30 tonnes a year of hafnium oxide in the Dubbo design. Dubbo is not funded or producing, so that figure is excluded from current supply and the main forecast.
Hafnium: Jet-engine alloys, nuclear control rods and advanced chip dielectrics.
No verified current outputDubbo: 30 tonnes a year project case
No reliable percentage is published for this country and production step.
Comparable current figure not published
Indium: data gap
Comparable current figure not published
Rhenium: data gap
Comparable current figure not published
Tellurium: data gap
Where the value is added
The projects form supply chains, not a pile of tonnes
Ten map points do not mean ten sources. Several mines supply the same refinery, and some material is processed overseas.
Current Lynas route
Mt Weld mineKalgoorlie chemical treatmentMalaysia separationOverseas metals and magnets
Australia supplies the ore and mixed carbonate. Lynas's reported oxides ready to sell are separated and finished in Malaysia. Mine, treatment, separation
Eneabba route
Stockpile and mined raw materialEneabba chemical treatmentAustralian separated oxidesLikely overseas metals and magnets
Balranald is the mine assumed in the financing plan. Browns Range and Goschen could lift later output if financed and accepted by the plant. Plant design
Funded Nolans route
Nolans mineOn-site chemical treatmentOn-site separated oxidesLikely overseas metals and magnets
This is the clearest committed new mine-to-oxide chain entirely inside Australia. Mobilisation is under way and first product is targeted around mid-2029.
Donald route
Donald mineAustralian concentrateUtah separationUnited States supply chain
More Australian mining would not mean more processing inside Australia.
Eneabba changes processing, not mine output. Material entering Eneabba and finished oxides belong in different totals. Adding both would count the same material twice.
Browns Range matters beyond its size. Its raw material rich in dysprosium and terbium could make Eneabba more strategically useful than a larger light rare earth mine.
Oxides are still not magnets. Australia has no large sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnet factory with a funded build decision or under construction.
Global position
Australia is third in mining. The gap comes after the mine
Mine output is only the first step. China's share rises sharply at separation and again at finished magnets.
Share of 2025 world mine output
390,000 tonnes totalChina's share of the magnet rare earth chain
2024 estimateGovernment support and price protection
Australia is reducing project risk, not guaranteeing success
Loans, tax offsets, purchase agreements and price floors solve different problems. Only the projects and products named in a final agreement are protected.
Strategic ReserveA$1.2 billionGovernment headline commitment
Potential Nolans Reserve supportUp to 500 tonnes a yearNon-binding Letter of Support
Processing tax offset10%Eligible costs from July 2027
Eneabba public loanA$1.65 billionNon-recourse project finance
| Measure | Status and mechanism | Who it helps | EarthRarest reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve | Project-by-project toolkitA$1 billion transaction capacity plus A$150 million for selective stockpiling. Tools can include purchases, forwards and contracts with price floors and ceilings. Source | NdPr and DyTb are initial materials. Nolans received a non-binding Letter of Support for potential backing of up to 500 tonnes a year. Terms | Potential support, not a guaranteed purchaseNo price is published. Due diligence, approvals and final documents still remain. |
| Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive | Starts 1 July 2027Uncapped, refundable 10% offset on eligible Australian processing and refining expenditure, for up to 10 years per activity. Rules | Eneabba and Nolans can qualify. Mining, ore upgrading, manufacturing, construction and raw-material costs do not. | It rewards chemistry, not diggingThe policy favours domestic oxide production. It does not directly subsidise a mine-only project or finished-magnet factory. |
| Government project finance | Large, project-specific packagesEneabba has an A$1.65 billion government-backed project loan. Nolans has about A$140 million of public equity and up to A$700 million of public debt. Eneabba, Nolans, program overview | An Australian refinery and an integrated mine-to-oxide project. Mine-only proposals do not receive the same automatic support. | Capital risk falls, execution risk remainsPublic money can build a factory. It cannot guarantee recovery, smooth start-up or buyers. |
| Project price floors | US$110 per kilogram public NdPr floorJapan-backed buyers cover 5,000 tonnes a year through 2038. A US framework uses the same floor for four years. Eneabba's 1,200-tonne total automotive purchase agreement has confidential minimum prices. Japan, United States, Eneabba | Only the producer, material and volume named in each contract. Those buyers also committed to half of Lynas's heavy rare-earth output, but no separate Dy or Tb floor is public. | Real downside protection, but not sector-wideThese are customer contracts. The Lynas floor is not Australian law and the Eneabba minimums are independent of government support. |
| Approval coordination | Case management, not automatic approvalThe Investor Front Door helps projects navigate agencies. Major Project Status generally requires more than A$50 million and complex approvals. Australia and the US also agreed to work on shorter timelines. Federal route, framework | Large mines, refineries and allied supply-chain projects navigating several regulators and financing bodies. | A useful reduction in frictionState mining, heritage and environmental approvals and Commonwealth environmental law still apply. |
| Northern Territory value-add rules | Lower royalty after more processingFor new production, the rare-earth rate is 5% on concentrate and 2.5% on oxide or metal. Nolans is also the first Significant Project under the Territory Coordinator. Royalty, coordination | Nolans and future Northern Territory projects that turn mined material into a higher-value product locally. | A direct signal to process in the TerritoryThe lower rate rewards value addition. Significant Project status coordinates decisions but does not replace mining, environmental or heritage approvals. |
Potential Strategic Reserve supportUp to 500 tonnes a yearNon-binding Letter of Support; due diligence and approvals remain
Why it matters: Arafura said lenders wanted buyer coverage for 80% of design output. Potential Reserve support helped the finance case, but it is not a completed purchase agreement and no public price is disclosed. Source
NdPr market comparisonUS$110 per kilogram floorAbout 9% above the US$100.8/kg China domestic price Lynas cited for June 2026
What the floor really does: it limits the downside on covered sales while leaving upside above the floor. It does not set a world price, and an ex-China delivered product is not identical to a China domestic quote.
EarthRarest forecast
Our 2030 call
Mine output and finished chemicals stay in separate totals.
Current mine benchmark29,000 tonnesCalendar 2025 estimate; not a 2030 forecast
2030 onshore NdPr5,520 tonnesEarthRarest central estimate
New mine tonnesNot countedComparable contained-ore figures are not published
Finished magnetsStill smallNo large Australian plant is being built
The prediction: Australia's measurable 2030 gain is domestic separation, not a defensible new national mine total. Eneabba and Nolans could make magnet chemicals at home; most metal, alloy and magnet making would still happen overseas.
| 2030 case | NdPr separated in Australia | What has to happen |
|---|---|---|
| Delay | 1,650 tonnes | Half the Eneabba project plan; no Nolans output |
| Central | 5,520 tonnes | Eneabba's 3,300-tonne case plus half of Nolans' 4,440-tonne design |
| Strong | 8,830 tonnes | Eneabba near maximum plus three-quarters of Nolans |
Why there is no 2030 mine-share claim: Nolans publishes finished chemical capacity, not a like-for-like contained-ore figure. Balranald has started mining but has not published actual 2026 rare-earth output.
No double counting: Material entering Eneabba and finished oxide leaving it stay in different totals. Processing the same tonnes twice does not create new supply.
Likely 2030 Australian NdPr versus full plant capacity
Tonnes separated in Australia during calendar 2030
Delay1,650 tonnes
Central5,520 tonnes
Strong8,830 tonnes
Full published capacity9,940 tonnes
Sources: Eneabba maximum, Eneabba financing case and Nolans design. Capacity is not expected output.Dates that matter
When supply could reach customers
Starting a plant means testing equipment and qualifying products. It does not mean full output on day one.
The base keeps running
Mt Weld and Kalgoorlie produce. Balranald starts. Nolans reaches a funded build decision and mobilises.
Eneabba testing
Iluka's current target for plant start-up testing.
First contracted deliveries
Eneabba begins its first binding customer supply period.
Nolans first product
Mid-year company target. The 50% rate used for calendar 2030 is an EarthRarest assumption.
Separation matters
EarthRarest main forecast: Eneabba near its financing case and Nolans around half rate.
Unfunded targets stay outside the main forecast: Browns Range targets late 2028 or early 2029 and Donald targets 2028. Yangibana, Dubbo and Goschen also remain outside the timeline until a funded build begins.
What changes the forecast
Four tests, in order
The strongest evidence is steady sales, not construction percentages or maximum factory ratings.
- 01Eneabba produces qualified oxide in 2028
Watch actual customer deliveries and product mix.
- 02Nolans starts major construction on schedule
Watch site progress against the mid-2029 first-product target.
- 03Browns Range or Goschen secures full finance
Either could give Eneabba more raw material. Until then, neither belongs in the central output case.
- 04A metal or magnet plant reaches construction
Without it, Australia's chain still ends at oxide.
Method
Simple rules behind the numbers
- Mine output
- Rare earth oxide equivalent contained in mined material. This is the basis for country shares.
- Concentrate
- Partly processed material. Its physical tonnes are not the same as rare earth tonnes.
- Separated oxide
- A customer-grade oxide made after rare-earth separation, either one element or a deliberate commercial mix such as NdPr or DyTb. Concentrate and mixed carbonate do not count.
- Capacity
- The most a plant is designed to make. It is not actual production.
- Purchase contract
- An agreement to buy future production. It may be binding or only an expression of intent.
- Price floor
- A minimum price for the named product and covered volume. It is not a guaranteed market price for everyone.
Sources for all project and market data
- U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026Australia and world 2025 mine output.
- Lynas Rare Earths, FY2026 results presentationFinished product, NdPr, Dy and Tb output, first samarium product and the June 2026 NdPr reference price.
- Lynas, enhanced JARE agreement, 10 March 2026Firm agreement for 5,000 tonnes a year of NdPr, US$110 per kilogram floor, term to 2038 and heavy rare earth purchase commitments.
- Lynas, U.S. supply framework, 21 April 2026Four-year rare earth oxide framework and NdPr price floor of US$110 per kilogram.
- Lynas Rare Earths, Mt WeldMine and concentrator.
- Lynas Rare Earths, KalgoorlieChemical treatment route.
- Lynas Rare Earths, MalaysiaSeparation and product finishing.
- Iluka Resources, rare earth productsEneabba's feed-dependent maximum capacities.
- Iluka, Eneabba funding and economics, 6 December 2024Stockpile plus Balranald financing case: 15,100 tonnes total and 3,300 tonnes of NdPr.
- Iluka, Eneabba update, 22 June 2026Construction progress, start-up and delivery schedule.
- Iluka, Eneabba automotive offtake agreement, 23 June 20261,200 tonnes total supply from 2028 to 2031 and confidential product-level minimum prices independent of government support.
- Reuters, Arafura approves Nolans, 21 May 2026Build decision, finance and timing.
- Arafura Rare Earths, Nolans project updateOutput and ramp assumptions.
- Arafura Rare Earths, Nolans overview4,440 tonnes of NdPr described as about 4% of forecast global demand.
- Australian Government, Strategic Reserve support for Nolans, 21 May 2026Potential non-binding support for up to 500 tonnes a year, final investment decision, public equity and debt support.
- Treasury Ministers, Nolans potential Strategic Reserve support briefing, 21 May 2026Non-binding potential support for up to 500 tonnes a year and the lender requirement for buyer coverage of 80% of output.
- Department of Industry, Critical Minerals Strategic ReserveLegislated mechanism, A$1 billion transaction capacity, A$150 million stockpiling allocation and initial materials.
- Department of Industry, Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive10% refundable processing offset, dates, eligible costs and exclusions.
- Iluka Resources, Eneabba developmentA$1.65 billion project loan from the Australian Government.
- Department of Industry, funding and support for critical minerals projectsApproval coordination, finance, technical support and the Major Projects Facilitation Agency threshold.
- Australian Government, Investor Front DoorCurrent federal route for investment facilitation and approvals navigation.
- Australia and United States critical minerals communiqué, 14 March 2026Joint finance, supply security coordination and work on permitting timelines.
- Northern Territory, Mineral Royalties Act 2024Rates for new rare-earth concentrate, oxide and metal production.
- Northern Territory, Nolans Significant Project status, 1 June 2026Whole-of-government statutory coordination without automatic approval.
- Northern Minerals, Browns Range feasibility study, 15 September 2025Concentrate, contained oxide and project status.
- Northern Minerals, Browns Range update, 2026Conditional build-decision and first-concentrate targets.
- Hastings Technology Metals, Yangibana study, 13 July 2026Average concentrate, contained oxide, NdPr and funding status.
- Australian Strategic Materials, Dubbo study, July 2025Earlier separated-oxide case.
- Australian Strategic Materials, quarterly report, 30 June 2026Processing route review.
- Energy Fuels, Donald update, 29 July 2026Current concentrate target and intended Utah route.
- Iluka and VHM, Goschen supply agreement, 2 July 2026Concentrate and contained oxide.
- Iluka Resources, BalranaldJanuary 2026 operating start.
- Iluka, Balranald build decision, 21 February 2023Earlier future concentrate estimate.
- European Commission JRC, The role of rare earth elements in wind energy and electric mobilityOlder Annex 2 demand scenarios converted to combined NdPr oxide-equivalent denominators of 83,840 to 154,004 tonnes in 2030. Used only to show the scale of EarthRarest's 5,520-tonne main forecast, not as a fresh market forecast.
- International Energy Agency, Rare Earth ElementsMining, separation and magnet concentration.
- SMM, Rare Earth Oxides, 28 August 2026Domestic-China oxide midpoint indications retained as supporting market context. They are not used to estimate supply shares.
- U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: AntimonyAustralia and world 2025 antimony mine output.
Keep following the supply chain
Where Australia connects to the wider race
These links follow raw material, processing, buyers and policy. They are not an alphabetical reading list.
MalaysiaFollow Australian ore to the refineryUnited StatesCompare the allied magnet build-outJapanSee the buyer and price-support strategyChinaMeasure the full-chain benchmark
Materials in this briefing
Strategic metals on this page
Series and market guides
Actual figures, company targets and EarthRarest estimates are labelled separately. This is independent research and commentary, not personalised investment advice.
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