For all the talk of new supply chains and strategic reshoring through March, China remains at the heart of the rare earth market.
So that is where we begin: with China’s early export figures for 2026, before looking at how the fallout is already being felt in Japan and how the US is responding.
Chinese rare earth exports up in Jan & Feb 2026
China’s rare earth exports rose 23% year on year across January and February 2026, according to fresh customs data reported by Reuters.
On the surface, that suggests material is moving more freely and that supply has eased since the start of the year.
But headline export growth does not change the deeper picture. Export controls remain in place for seven heavy rare earths: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.
As reported in a piece by the European Parliament Think Tank, China requires exporters to get licences and disclose who the end users of rare earths are, but some firms see that customer information as commercially sensitive.
What’s more, many of the exporters believe the approval process is deliberately unclear, selective and slow.
Despite the ongoing trade difficulties, it doesn’t seem like Chinese supply will be budging any time soon.
In fact, China is expected to grow its market share of rare earth refining.
A country may be able to say it has mined the material, but China still retains significant leverage by carrying out the separation and refining needed to turn it into a usable commercial product.
Keep an eye out for next month’s update as we’re still waiting for more details to emerge from the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Imports & Exports (or CCCMC) event held on 25 March in Beijing.
Not the catchiest name ever coined, but it should give us a clearer read on where things are heading.
Chinese restrictions impact Japanese wage negotiations
The effects of Chinese restrictions are not just showing up in the West.
In Japan, they are now feeding into wage negotiations, with reports that procurement costs for rare earths have doubled or even tripled for some firms.
Some buyers are even being pushed towards more expensive and logistically heavier European supply chains, adding another layer of pressure for manufacturers already dealing with tight margins.
It goes to show that these restrictions do not need to shut whole industries overnight to have an impact.
Pressure on input costs can work its way through sourcing decisions, margins, wage talks and industrial confidence long before it turns into a bigger supply crisis.
China threatens the US with rare earth restrictions… again
Reports suggest renewed warnings that if the US pushes further on tariffs and trade measures, rare earth restrictions could again form part of Beijing’s response.
It is the same leverage as before, but it remains effective because the US and its allies are still trying to build supply chains that are new, costly and far from fully proven (more on that below).
And until that changes, rare earths remain one of China’s clearest strategic pressure points, economically and politically.
As a reminder, China has temporarily paused its export ban on five additonal REEs, plus gallium, germanium and antimony until November 2026, pending further negotiations with the US.
Even so, reliably sourcing these materials in meaningful volume outside China remains difficult for major importers.
As things stand, antimony is still available to invest in through Earth Rarest.
US bets $1.6bn on unproven local miner
Trump’s planned $1.6 billion backing of USA Rare Earth says a lot about where the US now stands. USA Rare Earth may still be unproven commercially, but that is almost the point.
The US is now willing to back riskier projects because these materials have become too important to ignore.
Recent mineral deals by the US government
As the table shows, this is part of a wider push across rare earths, lithium and copper as Washington tries to rebuild supply chains China spent decades securing.
The real question is cost. Can the US actually compete with China without ongoing support?
As reported in the FT, MP Materials only swung to profit with the help of a government-backed price floor, which is telling.
It suggests the West is not just trying to catch up on supply, but to do so against a producer that still holds the cost advantage.
For prices (and investors), that matters.
If non-Chinese supply needs this much support to stand up, it underlines just how valuable secure rare earth production may become.
Russell Gous
Head of Investor Relations
