April was a very busy month for rare earth and critical minerals news.
New OECD analysis showed how sharply export controls have risen over the past two decades, the US looked to Malaysia for heavy rare earth processing, China added to its control toolkit, Europe pushed ahead with supply chain responses, and producers lifted prices as the market grew tighter.
The fivefold rise in critical mineral export controls
As reported in the FT, the OECD has put some numbers behind what rare earth investors have been watching for years, export restrictions on critical raw materials have increased fivefold since 2009.
The trend is broader than China, although China remains central to the rare earth story.
Restrictions such as export controls, quotas and licensing requirements now affect around 45% of rare earth exports, and roughly 70% of cobalt and manganese exports.
Only the EU and Japan faced less retrictions on critical mineral imports between 2022-44 than between 2009-11 (visual from FT):
Coming into the metals industry, my mentor told me to look closely at China’s 2010 rare earth squeeze on Japan. At the time, it looked like a shock move. In hindsight, it was the start of a new playbook for them and other exporters around the world.
Fifteen years later, China still produces around 70% of the world’s rare earth elements and graphite, and more than 90% of some advanced manufacturing inputs, including neodymium-praseodymium and germanium.
Malaysia moves from supply chain footnote to defence priority
The Pentagon’s search for rare earth supply is increasingly turning towards Malaysia, where Lynas has begun producing samarium oxide at its processing facility.
That may sound like a narrow development, but in rare earths these narrow developments matter. Samarium is used in high-temperature magnets, which have applications across defence, aerospace and other industries where performance under heat is important.
Malaysia matters because it is one of the few places where that non-Chinese processing capacity already exists at meaningful scale.
For the US, that makes Lynas strategically useful. For the wider market, it is a reminder that rare earth supply is being pulled deeper into defence planning.
Trade truce... not the reality
In a continuation of our March theme, Reuters has released a piece summarising the controls China has implemented since the “trade truce” with the USA last November.
That truce followed the Trump Xi meeting, after which the White House said China would “effectively eliminate China’s current and proposed export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals”.
It may have been all smiles for the cameras in November, but it’s been a tightening of the belt since.
The April measures have turned what we have covered in previous newsletters from policy risk into implemented rules.
Premier Li Qiang signed two new regulations granting Chinese authorities wider powers to investigate foreign firms, governments and individuals accused of discriminating against China’s industrial and supply chains, or enforcing what Beijing calls “unjustified extraterritorial jurisdiction” against Chinese entities.
Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, put the problem neatly: “Companies now face an asymmetry: China can reduce purchases from foreign firms with little consequence, while a foreign company that cuts its dependence on China risks investigation.”
The indirect pressure on US chipmakers is just as interesting. State-funded data centres have reportedly been told to replace foreign AI chips, while chipmakers adding new capacity must use at least 50% domestically made equipment.
On top of this, Beijing has tightened its rare earth licensing regime, introduced laws to punish foreign entities that shift supply chains away from China, barred US and Israeli cybersecurity software from Chinese companies, and considered curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports to the US.
Rare earth controls meet European boardrooms
Chinese restrictions, partly driven by US-Iran tensions and the wider standoff with Washington, are creating concern in Europe too.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said some European firms are rethinking their operations after being caught by Beijing’s rare earth export controls.
The licensing process remains “slow, unpredictable, uncoordinated and lacks transparency”, which is not ideal when your production line depends on materials that need approval before they can move.
This is the knock-on effect from the trade truce story. The first impact is political. The second is practical.
Companies start asking whether they can rely on a supplier, whether they need a plan B, and whether sensitive parts of the supply chain should still sit so close to the choke point.
The Chamber’s president, Jens Eskelund, said there has been a “profound mindset change” among firms that previously assumed their supplier had things covered. That is probably the real damage from export controls: even when goods still move, confidence in the route starts to thin.
The EU and US formalise their critical minerals plan
The EU has been busy in April as it plays catch up to build a reliable critical mineral supply chain.
Announced and reported by us in February, The European Commission has confirmed that the EU and US have rubber stamped a memorandum of understanding on a strategic critical minerals partnership, alongside a joint action plan on supply chain resilience.
As a reminder, the agreement focuses on improving cooperation across the critical minerals supply chain, including exploration, extraction, processing, refining, recycling and reuse.
The aim is to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities and support more secure access to the materials needed for defence, clean energy, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.
For rare earths, the important point is that governments are no longer only talking about finding new deposits. They are increasingly focused on the full supply chain around them.
EU launches raw materials demand platform
The European Commission has also launched the first call under its new Raw Materials Mechanism, a platform designed to bring together buyers and suppliers of critical raw materials.
The idea is to let buyers aggregate demand and connect with suppliers, financial institutions and storage providers. It is voluntary and market-based, so the Commission says it will not intervene directly in commercial negotiations.
The focus areas are exactly where you would expect: rare earths, defence and battery materials.
For smaller companies, this could matter. Large industrial buyers already have networks, procurement teams and long-standing supply relationships. Smaller firms often do not. A central platform could help give them visibility on alternative sources outside existing supplier channels.
This fits neatly with the wider EU direction. Brussels is not only trying to sign critical minerals partnerships, it is also trying to create the plumbing that allows companies to find supply, pool demand and reduce dependence on certain suppliers.
China Northern Rare Earth raises Q2 concentrate price
China Northern Rare Earth Group has raised its rare earth concentrate price for Q2 2026 by 44.6%, according to Mining.com.
The company set the price at 38,804 yuan per tonne, excluding tax, based on material containing 50% rare earth oxide. That is more than twice the level seen this time last year.
The move points to tighter conditions in China’s rare earth market, but it also highlights how structured the pricing system is. The new benchmark was set under an arrangement with Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union, using a formula linked to first-quarter rare earth oxide prices.
Mining.com also notes the wider pressure from the Middle East conflict, which has tightened sulphuric acid supply. Sulphuric acid is used in leaching and separation, so even when rare earths are not directly hit by a conflict, the inputs needed to process them can still become a constraint.
Russell Gous
Head of Investor Relations
