Japan secured 5,000 tonnes a year. Mine output is not reported.

The IEA says Japanese demand-side policy after the 2010 export disruption helped reduce total rare-earth demand by 30% from that year's level. 2 Engineers reduced heavy-element loading where performance allowed it, while recycling and substitution programmes received public support. That mix turns avoided demand into a supply tool, since each tonne removed no longer needs a new separation plant.

Broad import shares can overstate that progress when they are applied to the difficult elements. Japan's industry ministry's 2026 manufacturing white paper says heavy rare-earth imports remain 100% dependent on China. 3 The qualifier matters because dysprosium and terbium are used in smaller volumes, yet they can decide whether selected magnets retain coercivity at high temperature.

China tightened controls on dual-use goods destined for Japan in January 2026. The published measure covers Japanese military users and military end uses, including end uses that contribute to military capability. 8 Civil rare-earth trade falls outside a blanket ban; describing a full embargo would turn a limited legal measure into the wrong supply scenario.

Japan reduced the size of the problem, then used contracts to move the remaining risk into projects it could help finance.

What the numbers say

Japan Australia Rare Earths secured a firm annual commitment of 5,000 tonnes of NdPr under the March 2026 revision. The wider agreement allows supply of up to 7,200 tonnes a year through 2038. 4 The buyer group is co-owned by Japan's state minerals agency and Sojitz, which turns the purchase into an industrial-policy instrument rather than a normal spot contract.

Lynas will reserve 75% of its heavy rare-earth oxide output for Japanese industry. The Japan-backed buyer group, for its part, commits to buy half of total heavy output. 4 Access and a minimum commercial outlet are different obligations: the first protects Japanese customers, while the second supports the producer.

The NdPr price floor of US$110 per kilogram helps keep a non-Chinese supplier operating when market prices weaken. 4 Japanese buyers accept the opposite risk: the protected contract price can sit above the market.

Through its state minerals agency and Iwatani, Japan's industry ministry committed roughly EUR 100 million to Japanese participation in Caremag's French project, while France offered support at a similar scale. 5 The public capital targets a specific heavy-element bottleneck instead of a broad critical-minerals fund.

Caremag is designed to process 2,000 tonnes of recycled magnets each year. Its separate primary-feed line is designed for 5,000 tonnes of ore or concentrate. 5 Those are input measures, so neither should be labelled annual Dy/Tb oxide output.

Japan's industry ministry expects the long-term agreement to cover about one fifth of future Japanese dysprosium and terbium demand. 5 A Japan-France roadmap signed in April 2026 reaffirmed support for the project. 6 Caremag matters to Japanese supply even though the equipment sits in France, because Japanese capital and contracted demand are central to its business case.

Japan's marine science agency's connection test recovered material continuously from three rare-earth mud layers during early 2026. The July results put the pipe length at 5,569 metres. 7 Rough seas stretched equipment deployment beyond the planned week, which gives the next endurance test a real operating benchmark rather than a laboratory one.

About 50 tonnes of mud reached the vessel after the agency excluded the seawater added during lifting. Middle and heavy elements made up roughly 54% of its total rare-earth content. 7 Oxide ready to sell remains several steps away because dewatering on Minamitorishima comes next, followed by a mainland separation trial.

A month-long mining test is planned for February 2027. Japan intends to complete an industrial assessment, including economics, by March 2028. 7 The project stays outside the 2030 base supply case until a longer run establishes workable cost and throughput. Environmental monitoring also has to survive the test.

A 5,569-metre lift can be a world first and still be years away from a mine that lenders can finance.

What the numbers say