The clearest sign yet that critical minerals have moved firmly into the geopolitical mainstream came at the start of February, when Donald Trump announced a new U.S. strategic stockpile backed by $12 billion.
The plan, branded Project Vault, combines $10 billion in EXIM Bank funding with $2 billion of private capital. Its aim is simple enough: build a buffer of strategic materials so American manufacturers are less exposed to shortages and price shocks.
This is not just a mining subsidy or vague piece of policy, it’s a significant investment that shows critical minerals are now being treated more like energy security, medical security, or defence stockpiles (because they’re the metals underpinning these industries).
It goes without saying, the smarter time to enter is before these stockpiling initiatives are complete, not after the market has already repriced.
Builds on stockpiling initiatives by South Korea, Australia and the EU
The U.S. move does not sit in isolation. It is building on a broader pattern that is now visible across a number of economies.
Australia announced in January that its own strategic reserve will prioritise antimony, gallium and rare earths, with an A$1.2 billion reserve expected to be fully operational by the end of 2026.
Italy, France and Germany are also leading a European push to stockpile critical materials. In many ways, the bloc looks among the least prepared for the critical minerals race, which helps explain the growing urgency.
South Korea is moving more aggressively too. Seoul has stepped up state oversight of 17 designated critical minerals, reinforcing efforts to monitor supply risk and strengthen access to key inputs.
Sweden’s Per Geijer deposit gets bigger, but not faster
On paper, Sweden’s Per Geijer project looks like exactly the kind of discovery Europe wants. LKAB now says the deposit contains 2.2 million tonnes of in situ rare earth oxide, up almost 30% year on year and roughly double the 2022 estimate.
That makes it one of Europe’s most important known rare earth resources. It is a reminder that the West is not short of geological promise. It is short of speed.
That is the key distinction investors should keep in mind. More resources being identified is bullish for long-term supply security, but it does very little for immediate availability.
LKAB itself said at the time of the discovery that regulatory approvals alone could keep real production 10 to 15 years away (which rather reinforces last month’s point about EU over-regulation).
This is exactly why strategic metals can still have a strong investment window even as fresh discoveries make headlines.
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth push shows where this is heading
Japan offered another sign of the times this month, announcing that a deep-sea test mission retrieved sediment containing rare earths from a depth of 6,000 metres near Minami Torishima.
The wider area is estimated to contain more than 16 million tonnes of rare earths, which would make it one of the world’s larger untapped resources.
This is important less because it suddenly adds supply tomorrow, and more because it shows where governments are now willing to look. When countries start drilling the seabed, you know the scramble is real.
From an investor perspective, something like this is unlikely to affect supply in the near term. Deep-sea extraction is technically difficult, capital-intensive, environmentally contentious, and still at the testing stage.
Even if the resource proves commercially viable, this is much more likely to be a next-decade story.
Critical minerals now show up in almost every major meeting
Another point worth noting is how often critical minerals now appear in high-level diplomatic and trade discussions.
Mark Carney’s upcoming India visit is a good example. Talks are set to include cooperation on trade and investment, energy collaboration, and partnerships in critical minerals.
A few years ago, critical minerals would have been a specialist policy topic buried in industry panels. Now they are showing up directly in bilateral agendas between major economies.
New investor overview available
This month I’ve also put together a new investor overview.
I compared our baskets against major indices since the start of January 2020.
The strategic metal basket has outperformed all major indices shown, and not by a little. Even against gold, which has had an excellent run over the same period, the basket is still well ahead.
Russell Gous
Head of Investor Relations
